Don Paul: Winter and the lake effect get to work this week | Forecasts


There is a very slight southerly shift in the GFS during the afternoon. The ECMWF is not as pronounced as the GFS with the band, and places it a few miles further south. The ECMWF, GFS and Canadian GEM are what we call global models and offer less detail than high resolution models which only last 48-60 hours. On the latter, we’ll know more tomorrow, and I’ll update that forecast in the comments section on Tuesday, below the article. At this point, I would expect these detailed models to show more potential for accumulation near the metropolitan area than the current lower resolution global models.

This GFS estimate is the highest currently. It is safe to say that there is real potential for lake effect for larger amounts near the metro area, but the situation is not a lock.

Several models are developing a deeper storm system just off the coast on Friday. It looks like it will be too far east to bring much, if any, synoptic snow into western New York City, but it will be worth watching.

Temperatures will moderate from a low of 20 on Friday to a low of 30 on Saturday and to nearly 40 on Sunday, before another intense cold front, with readings plummeting Sunday night early next week. Early indications point to a northwesterly flow behind Sunday’s cold front, which would mean less lake effect impact in the WNY. In any case, the ski resorts will be able to build on their bases with a real increase in nature possible later Thursday and Sunday evening and next Monday.


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